Liberian Presidential Election 2023: Observations and Suggestions (Pt2)

By: Dagbayonoh Kiah Nyanfore II

2017 I gave preliminary observations and advice on the Liberian 2017 presidential election. I have updated the observations and maintained most of the suggestions for this 2023 election.

When I listen to Liberian radios or read in the papers on this year’s Liberian presidential election, I observe that some supporters of the candidates focus on discussing the opposing candidate or candidates negatively and not talking about their candidates. 

By only speaking negatively of the other candidate, you are saying that the opposing candidate is the one to beat, meaning that the candidate has the best chance of winning and, therefore, must be attacked. Attack communication or campaigning has a role in electoral politics but can backfire in many respects.

Specifically, in the campaigns in developed countries, the opposing camp can implement 24/7 anti-media blasts in responding to negative campaigns or remarks. Such endeavor may include rapid response to any damaging statement from the opposite camp, affecting your platform and making your message difficult. Do not start a fight that you cannot continue.  

If you have a candidate in the media, talk about the candidate. Discuss the issue. Say why your candidate is the right person for the presidency. Talk about your candidate’s character, record, vision, and how the candidate is different. Talk about the candidate’s platform and what he or she will do when elected. It would help if you dwell on something other than the candidate’s education, speaking or oratory ability, and wealth, for they do not concretely tell about the candidate. Let your discussion be issue-driven.

If you are involved in managing a campaign, it is helpful to have a “war room,” not to fight or attack, but to plan and manage effectively. Like the war room of Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign in the US, the room should be a discussing arena for the frank deliberation of campaign issues and strategizing. Clinton was an underdog at the beginning of the election. Proper use of the room helped his camp win the election.

You should have a political map of the country and crack the numbers. An internal and external professional polling group should be weekly informing of public opinions regarding the campaign. The campaign team should manage expectations and honestly discuss matters with and advise the candidate. 

Further, in addition to media appearances, your campaign should advertise in the 15 counties of Liberia. Let your candidate personally tell his story and platform mainly on the radios in simple Liberian English.

You should simplify your case and answer these questions: Is your candidate different? Does your candidate have a heart, feelings, and care for the Liberian people? Did your candidate demonstrate this care before entering politics? Is your candidate honest and has integrity? Did the candidate treat people fairly in business or private life before entering politics? Does the candidate have a story, a background that the ordinary Liberians can relate to? If so, tell it. Do not discuss the opponent. Tell the candidate’s story and vision in local languages to be broadcast in villages or rural areas. We are human and like to know that the person who wants to lead us is one of us.

Many candidates see politics as a business; they want to be elected to make money, receive high income, complimentary gas slips and calling cards, and drive expensive and change cars every three years. Sadly, when elected, they care less about their constituents.

If you do not believe in a candidate, do not speak or write about him or her. Do not degradingly address the candidate’s opponent either. Politics is dynamic. It is moving and changing, and you do not know where you will be tomorrow.  

ROLE OF JOURNALISTS, PRESS/MEDIA

Journalists should play a vital role in this presidential or any other election. They must carry and report the news fairly, balancing both sides. Accordingly, they are the society’s “watchdogs”. They must verify information and accurately report without sentiments and personal feelings. In the past, some journalists have taken sides in an election, reporting erroneous information.

For instance, in the 2005 election, the press reported that candidate George Weah had married Mammy Doe, daughter of the late President Samuel Doe and that Weah told the people of Grand Gedeh, Doe’s home county, that he would wipe off their tears, referring to their cry and sorrow for Doe’s death. This information was inaccurate. Had the press checked the report, it would have discovered that Mammy Doe, known as Veronica Doe, was married and living with her husband in Europe.

Moreover, there was no fact to the alleged statement by Weah. This misinformation intended to inflame the tension between Grand Gedeh and Nimba during the civil war. As known, Prince Johnson’s forces killed Doe during the civil war. Johnson was a rebel general from Nimba. The reportage sought to drive Nimba votes away from Weah to benefit UP’s candidate, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. Here, journalists used bad journalism to recreate regional division and national disunity for selfish political benefit.

Another example was in 2019. The late Philip Wesseh, a veteran Liberian journalist, witnessed on October 3, 2019, the gathering of hundreds of protesters at the St. Joseph Catholic Hospital in Monrovia demanding the immediate release of Jestina Taylor, a patient who reportedly was to attend her visa interview with the American Embassy in the city. Henry Costa, proprietor of Roots FM, ordered the protesters to go to the hospital, alleging that the Liberian government was about to arrest and stop the patient from attending the interview. “Block the roads; go to the hospital to rescue her and accompany her to the embassy,” Costa instructed his supporters.

The gathering turned violent, the Inquirer, a newspaper, reported, adding that the protesters threw stones at the police, and the police, in turn, used teargas and wasted water at the demonstrators. The violence led to “the closing many businesses and homes at the hospital”, the paper ended. But the information was false. The hospital never arrested or stopped the patient.

The incident shows the strength of the media and how they can misinform and mobilize people into violence. It brings to mind Radio Kigakali of Rwandan. This station promoted hit and negative messages and propaganda during the Rwandan crisis. 

In a political campaign, some candidates and their supporters make erroneous statements. Journalists must fact-check the information, uphold the codes of journalism, and cease from misinformation and from what I call “prostitution journalism.” I was glad for the partnership recently entered between the OK FM and Local Voices for fact-checking. The agreement shows the station’s commitment to truth-telling. It will help stop misinformation.

In the US, press or reporters covering a campaign report only the event; they ask questions, seek answers, and report. Sentimental reporting is discouraged. A journalist, however, can be a hired gun to promote a candidate but not to report the news partially.

Further, the media, as an institution, can endorse a candidate. But the paper must give fair and balanced treatment to all candidates in an election. For example, in the 2016 presidential election in America, the New York Times endorsed Hilary Clinton. Still, it covered fairly all news regarding the election. The Times accurately, impartially, and professionally covered all news on Trump, though it supported Clinton’s candidacy. That was professionalism; that was a duty.

The media in Liberia appear not to help improve electoral behavior. In this election, some media houses tend to be party partisans. Pro-government media dance to the administration’s tune and report favorably on government activities, including ruling party candidates. Anti-government media report negatively on the administration and the president and focus on what is wrong with the government. They are generally biased in their reportage. It is easy to identify the media position by reading and listening to their reports or coverages.

Before the 2020 legislative election, anti-administration media promoted the June 7 Protest and, during the election, supported the opposition candidates. For instance, FrontPage Africa, a leading Liberian newspaper, published positive articles on opposition senatorial candidate Darius Dillon. One report named him the frontrunner without any basis, such as scientific or un-scientific polling. During the week before the rerun between CDC representative candidate Abu Kamara and CPP candidate Tyria Urey, it covered a violent incident involving a fight between the candidates’ supporters in front of NEC headquarters. In its report, the paper said that Kamara’s backers started the violence. But Joy FM, a radio station, took a different approach by interviewing eyewitnesses from each camp. It also talked to the Liberian National Police spokesman. The police representative reported from the police charge sheet the arrest of those involved in the violence. He said that a man wearing a Urey campaign tee shirt among the detained individuals was arrested driving a truck with rocks and cutlasses.

Indeed, FrontPage gave a negative image of the campaign that the paper opposed. Voters reading the story may form a wrong and one-sided opinion that could influence their votes. Biased or fake news reporting does not help society. It misinforms and mis-educates the society, which it should protect. 

The Daily Observer, a family newspaper to FrontPage Africa, appears to be pro-opposition but less pronounced than FrontPage Africa’s stance. Spoon FM, a media financed by Stanton Whiterspoon in the US, speaks negatively of the administration. Meanwhile, Freedom FM and King FM tend to be pro-government, promoting the administration activities and candidates. To them, the CDC’s government is succeeding and should be re-elected. They feature CDC candidates and guests in their programs. By giving only one side, they, too, mis-educate and provide a positive impression about the conditions in Liberia.

SKY Radio’s 50-50 with T-Max Jleteh mostly features opposition guests, giving them the platform to express their views. One frequent guest is Representative Yekeh Kolubah, who regularly insults the president. There are neutral media such as the New Dawn newspaper, Prime FM, OK FM, Joy FM, and Bana FM Tough Talk.

On the first day of the start of the campaign, some CDC members paraded a casket bearing a photo of Boakai. Some UP partisans verbally attacked CPP official Musa Bility in the following days. Yekeh Kolubah, a former rebel commander running for re-election, threatened to take redress in the bush if he felt cheated. On August 24, 2023, a young man died of campaign violence in Nimba. While others condemned these behaviors, many institutions, including media outlets, failed to speak against these actions. 

Media biases, prejudices, and silence have led to the misinformation of events and have also contributed to electoral violence in Liberia.

POLITICS

Politics is non-static, and nothing is permanent. President Weah will not be president forever, nor will the other candidates still be in politics. When elected, the best they can do is to honorably serve the people and allow others to serve. A political election will have a winner and loser(s). Losing is not the end of the world. If you lose, accept the defeat gracefully. That would show your honesty, dignity, and patriotism. Do not give up. President Sirleaf lost in 1997 but won in 2005 and 2011. President Weah lost in 2005 and 2011 but won in 2017. Politicians and their supporters must be civil and non-violent in an election.

All electoral politics and campaigns, either in the West or Africa, have one common goal, which is to win. The way you tailor your message and how you get it across matters. In America, most electorates are literate and have TV and radio. In Africa, the majority of the population is illiterate. Most cannot afford TV or personal radio, so you must gear your campaign to that reality. Use the radio and a Jehovah’s Witness campaign style involving door-to-door canvassing. However, all electorates are not stupid; they know and see their objective condition and want change. They want improvement in their lives. They want to be able to feed their families and be able to send their children to school. Sometimes, the need for change may take a while, but it will come; it will happen sooner when they put good and caring people in power. It would help if you talk about the bread-and-butter issues in your campaign.

RULING PARTY

The ruling CDC party says that it is running on its record. The party must accurately discuss its record and tangibles or achievements. It must also tell the Liberian people what it will do in the next six years. An incumbent enjoys the office of the presidency, which gives the leader an added advantage. It is challenging to defeat an incumbent if the person is performing well and popular. But the president must be active and take the re-election campaign seriously. Like former President Sirleaf in her 2011 re-election bid, the incumbent must campaign hard, canvassing in the rains, mud, and villages, asking the people for their votes.

In this election, George Weah is the most experienced candidate as a president. He has occupied the seat for over 5 years. Again, his record or achievements will be his greatest asset. His camp must articulate them well. Opponent candidates must run on their records and what they will do when given the thrust to lead. The Unity Party (UP) and the Collaborating Political Parties (CPP) are the major opposition parties in this contest. UP must tell what good it did during its 12 years in power and why the Liberian people should entrust power back to UP. Can Boakai do better than Sirleaf? Can he do better or more than Weah? Some voters may consider his age and health. Is he well enough to undergo a vigorous campaign and fit to govern for the next 6 years? Only he can answer. But New Dawn reported that his running-mate Jeremiah Koung, in an interview with OK FM on September 15, 2021, said that he opposed the former Vice President’s 2023 presidential bid, citing possible mental and physical decline.” In an interview with a radio station, Boakai incorrectly said that Liberia is 196 years old, though he should have said 176.

CPP must tell the voters that, though its standard bearer has no government experience, he can do better than Weah and Boakai. As a relative newcomer without a political stronghold, he must campaign harder. Besides his corporate expertise, what human and social services background or record does he bring? Can he relate to the ordinary Liberians?

OPPOSITION PARTIES

The task of the opposition is to show that the ruling party has failed and can do better. On the other hand, the opposition needs to be united. There is strength in unity. As an opposition, the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) won in 2017 because of its coalition with two other parties. CPP won the 2020 mid-term senatorial election due to the collaboration of UP, LP, ANC, and ALP.

MAJOR STRONGHOLDS

Politically, a stronghold is an area where a party historically and consistently receives significant votes in a presidential election. In Liberia, youth constitute over 60% of the population. Monserrado County, the largest populated county in the country, is a CDC stronghold. Though an opposition won a senatorial seat for the county in the 2019 and 2020 elections, Montserrado has gone CDC in the first rounds of the past three presidential elections.

Nimba, the second largest county, has favored Senator Prince Johnson in the first round of the 2011 and 2017 presidential elections. He was re-elected as a senator in the 2014 election for the county. His support to UP in 2011 and support to CDC in 2017 helped win the presidency for the parties, respectively. As expressed before, though he is not running for president in this election, he is backing UP by recommending Senator Jeremiah Koung to become Boakai’s VP running-mate. Koung is from Nimba. However, observers credit the CDC administration for bringing more developments to Nimba than the Sirleaf-Boakai regime did in 12 years.

Nimba is a traditional and cultural society. Several months ago this year, information says that Nimba’s elders told Johnson that they would support Weah. Moreover, some analysts believe Nimba would divide its votes among Boakai, Weah, Cummings, and Tiawan Gongloe.  Thus, the county appears not to be a stronghold for any party.

An expert from Nimba says that the division of the votes results from the county’s culture: Koung is considered a nephew of Nimba because his mother was bored in the county. Weah is also a nephew; his mother was a Nimba’s woman. Gongloe is a son because his parents were Nimbains. However, the expert projects that Weah would get the most votes due to the administration’s development tangibles and campaign organization in the county.

Bong is the third largest county. It is the home of Vice President Jewel Howard Taylor. As said prior, she was a two-term senator of Bong County. Her party, the National Patriotic Party (NPP), joined the CDC coalition. But it is hard to tell which party has the stronghold in Bong. While Senator Prince Moye, Boakai’s campaign manager, is from Bong County, Ambassador Jeremiah Sulunteh, Cummings’ 2017 running mate and Bong native son, supports Weah and is active in the election. The county could be a battleground, meaning it could go to either party. In America, a battleground state swings to a Republican or Democratic in a presidential election. Therefore, all parties put their weights in a battleground state for victory.

Though Grand Bassa in the past presidential elections has been a Liberty Party stronghold during Charles Brumskim’s leadership of the party, it could become a battleground in this election. The party has split since his demise. His daughter is Cummings’ running mate, and CPP is trying to claim the county. The Western counties, comprising Grand Cape Mount, Bomi, and Gbarpolu, could also become battlegrounds.

Lofa County is Boakai’s home. It is the fifth largest county next to Grand Bassa County. Yet Lofa and Grand Bassa Counties strategically do not heavily matter in this election. As my last article states, according to the National Elections Commission’s (NEC) 2023 voter registration statistics, Montserrado, Nimba, and Bong Counties should be the main focus. These three counties combined have 58% of the voting population. Individually, Montserrado has 36%, Nimba 12, and Bong 9. NEC’s data further say that women voters are more than men. Hence, a party that gets substantial women and youth votes from the counties stands an excellent chance of winning. The party should concentrate on them as a strategy. Succeeding in the other counties in Western and Southeast Liberia would be an additional benefit. Again, an election is about numbers.

In a race with many candidates fighting for an advantage, particularly in a low-population area, the established and popular candidates tend to dominate, making new and less popular candidates get fewer votes. This usually happens at the close of the race when the dust is clear. Indeed, the results of the national votes of the 2005, 2011, and 2017 presidential elections attest firmly to this expression. Sirleaf, Weah, Brumskine, Tubman, and Johnson got the highest votes. At the same time, Varney Sherman, Roland Massaquoi, Kennedy Sandy, Gladys Beyan, Togba-Nah Tipoteh, Dew Tuah-Wleh Mayson, Benoni Urey, and the other candidates received far fewer votes. For example, the votes of the lesser candidates were 3.3%, 1.13%, 1.06%, 0.63%, and 0.48%. 

Sirleaf Unity Party won by capturing Nimba, thanks to Joseph Korto in 2005 and Johnson in 2011, and by receiving significant votes from the other large counties. The other counties have less population, so their votes did not make enough impart in deciding the outcome. She received 59.4% of the total votes in the runoff of 2005, up 39.6% from 19.8% in the first round. Weah got 40.6%, which was 18.8% less votes in the runoff. The president struggled in her re-election bid. She could not obtain the 50% plus votes, forcing a second round. She received 43.93%, while Winston Tubman of the CDC got 32.68%. In the second phase, she got 90.71% in an unopposed election. In 2017, Weah won Boakai at 61.54%.

Usually, an incumbent with a good record of accomplishments, national support, and a divided opposition wins re-election easily, as happened in presidential elections in other countries.

Nevertheless, this is an initial observation; the variables may change as we get close to Election Day.

Pastor Foday Karpeh, who has studied and covered elections, echoed many of the above suggestions on OK FM Afternoon Conversation on August 23, 2023. Additionally, he observed that most Liberian political parties are not institutionalized but driven by individuals or personalities. Contrary to others, he does not discount a party winning on the first ballots in this election.  

In this election, you should discuss your candidate’s record and platform and avoid expressing negative statements about your opponent. You should be professional, respectful, factual, and convincing; by doing so, you would be helping your candidate. Your campaign should focus on the numbers and strategize for victory. The media should be fair and balanced. They should speak against electoral violence.