LIBERIA: Who Will Win?

BY Dagbayonoh Kiah Nyanfore II

On October 10, 2023, Liberians went to the polls to elect a new president. The election was peaceful, fair, and transparent. Moreover, the turnout was huge; 78.8% of those registered voted. The National Election Commission (NEC) took over a week to count and announce the final results.

NEC announced that former Vice President Joseph Boakai of the Unity Party (UP) won 43.44%, and President George Weah of the Coalition of Democratic Change (CDC) won 43.83% of the valid votes cashed. Because none of them received the constitutional requirement of 50% plus one vote, Boakai and Weah will compete in the runoff election, which will be on November 14, 2023. Despite the large turnout, observers noted 114,597 people registered invalid votes, constituting 5.89%, the highest in Liberian electoral history. Analysts attributed this number to inadequate voter education.

The election results surprised many observers. Candidate Alexander Cummings of the Collaborating Political Parties (CPP), one of the three main parties, finished distance 5th. But the newly formed Grass Roots Development Movement Party standard bearer, Edward Appleton, came third, and Lusinee Kamara of the All Liberians Collaborative Party (ALCOP) took 4th. As my last article on the election said, CPP campaigned heavily, canvassing in the 15 counties of Liberia. It launched the biggest political demonstration in Margibi County and held a victory rally in Monrovia. The turnouts were impressive. That election marked Cummings’ second unsuccessful presidential run. His poor performance stunned party members and political pundits. Also, Appleton’s fine showing surprised most observers. They wondered how he got so many votes, for he did not campaign much, nor was he well-known or popular. Appleton, a Liberian, lived in America for a while. He is said to have returned to Liberia to run for president.

Dr. George Williams, who knew Appleton in Liberia and the US, attempted to explain what he called “the Appleton phenomenon.” Williams’ article looks at several theories, including that Appleton’s votes may have been the results of a “mistaken identity,” that some voters may have thought him to be George Weah, or that he could have benefited from Weah’s look-alike or “Alexander [Cummings] name similarity.” Williams also feels that many voters, tired of standing in line, marked the first name on the ballot alphabetically, starting with A (Appleton). Because of Appleton’s third-place finishing, he was one of the persons whom UP and CDC most sought after in the runoff. However, if Dr. Williams’ theories are true, the parties’ chase could be useless. Moreover, some of Boakia’s votes could be consequences of Appleton’s phenomenon, particularly the alphabetical arrangement. Williams’ article also blames the problem on Liberia’s high illiteracy rate.

Albert Barclay, a talk show host at Bana Radio in Liberia, attributed the phenomenon to CDC’s pronouncement and advertisement that they would win the election by one ballot, which, according to Barclay, meant to some voters as number one on the ballot. While his assertion somewhat supports the mistaken identity theory, it indicates a factor of illiteracy.

Meanwhile, in an after-election remark, Cummings thanked his supporters but said that someone robbed his votes. Yet he did not say who. However, Gity Brown, a Cummings’ auxiliary head, stated thus regarding Appleton: “I am not saying his name was not on the ballot, but we are all human beings. You have to run a campaign to get followers. Where did this gentleman campaign? I did not hear his name. I just got to know his name at the announcement of the results.”

Appleton explained why he did well when he spoke at a press conference on October 24, 2023. He indicated that while other candidates focused on campaigning in the urban areas, he did most of his in the rural communities and did door-to-door canvassing.    

Let us look at my last analysis to know if my predictions came through. I stated that the candidate that wins significant votes in Montserrado, Nimba, and Bong Counties would have an excellent chance of winning. Weah and Boakai received meaningful votes in Montserrado, Nimba, and Bong Counties. However, Boakai performed better in Montserrado than expected. Montserrado is the Weah-CDC stronghold. Boakai dominated Nimba votes. He also won the Western region, entailing Bomi, Grand Cape Mount, Margibi, and Garpolu Counties. At the same time, Weah did well in Lofa, Boakai’s birthplace and stronghold. Weah received more votes than he did in 2017. Weah won Bong County, which was a battleground. 

I stated that Boakai would pay a political penalty in the Southeast, primarily for failing to campaign in the area. He lost massively in the region. Weah won Grand Bassa and Rivercess, which have been Liberty Party strongholds. Boakai counted on Senator Nyonblee Karnga-Lawrence to deliver Grand Bassa County, but it did not happen. I stated CDC’s and UP’s view that they would win by the first ballot may not work and that the parties made the statement to frighten the opponents. I wrote. 

“The prediction of a first-round victory may not hold. Such a forecast may be a political statement intended to energize the base and scare the opposition. For instance, in the 2011 presidential election, UP boasted of winning on first ballots, but that did not happen. CDC said the same in 2017 but failed, though both parties won in the second round. In Liberia’s presidential history from 1995 to 2017, only Charles Taylor won the presidency in round one”.

Nevertheless, my projection that Weah would win Montserrado County because it was his stronghold did not materialize. My view was wrong. Oppositions have won Montserrado for the past years. However, Weah lost the county by a slim margin of 2800 votes. As I said before, Boakai deserved the victory. But overall, Weah won the first round despite the race’s closeness. Moreover, CDC gained more legislative seats than any other parties and independent candidates, winning 27 representative elections out of 71 and six senatorial seats out of 15, giving the party a legislative mandate. 

The opinion by some Nimba political experts that either Weah or Tewon Gongolon would take first or second place in the county’s votes did not occur. Boakai was victory impressively, indicating Senator Prince Johnson’s continual influence in Nimba’s political affairs.

Both Weah and Boakai need to work harder in the runoff. Weah should increase his votes in Montserrado and Nimba and protect votes in the Southeast, Grand Bassa, Rivercess, and Bong Counties. Likewise, Boakai should improve in the Southeast, Grand Bassa, and Rivercess and maintain votes in Nimba, Lofa, Montserrado, and the Western region.   

NEEDS FOR SUPPORTS

Both candidates need the support of unsuccessful presidential and legislative candidates and other influential legislative winners. In other words, they need endorsements in the second round. Each has received support. Weah has gotten the backing of Cummings CPP, Benoni Urey and his All Liberians Party, several parties and permanent individuals, including Nimba County Edith Gongoloe Weh, Grand Bassa Senator-elect Gbehzohngar Findley, Mandigo Women group, and the youth wings of various parties. Boakai has received the endorsements of Edward Appleton, ALCOP standard bearer Lusinee Kamara, Tewon Gongloe of the Liberian People’s Party (LPP), other parties, and individuals. But this support does not mean the members would follow their parties’ leaders. For instance, the youth wing of LPP and the women group of ALCOP have pledged to support Weah’s re-election. At the same time, some members of other political parties have endorsed Boakai despite their leaders’ support for the president.

FINANCE

Finance would be crucial in the runoff. The party with deep pockets could have an edge. Some analysts have speculated that UP lacks adequate funds for the second round. The party has struggled financially for a while. On a Sky Radio interview, UP campaign spokesman Mo Ali and Punch CEO Patrick Honnah dodged the question when host T. Max Jlateh asked about the party’s financial readiness for runoff.

CDC appears to be prepared financially. It demonstrated this potency during the first round with extensive advertisements and logistics. However, the EU Election Observation team reported that the party had used state resources in campaigning, putting the opposition at a disadvantage. Though the Unity Party, during its rule, used the practice in its re-election bid in 2011, the EU team suggested CDC did more. Executive Mansion press secretary Tobey responded to the team, indicating that it presented no proof of the claim. However, Integrity Watch Liberia complained that all the political parties and independents have violated NEC election campaign financing regulations.

DOORS TO DOORS CANVASSING

Though endorsements and finance are essential for an electoral victory, doors to doors canvassing, that is, the Jehovah’s Witness method of the campaign, is the best strategy. It would effectively reach out to voters, particularly those unlettered and residing in the villages. Both camps have printed sample ballots with photos of the candidates where people should vote and whom they should vote for.

This approach should minimize invalid votes. Freedom FM morning hosts recently discussed the importance of this type of campaigning.

There is less enthusiasm in the runoff compared to the first round. The parties have reduced campaign activities. This could be a factor of complacency or finance. In 2005, after George Weah won the first round, he campaigned less, relaxing and thinking that he had already won the election. Sirleaf came from behind to win the runoff.

ELECTION FAIRNESS

Besides minor problems and difficulties, local and international observers have praised NEC for conducting a peaceful, free, fair, and transparent October election. Though some unsuccessful legislative candidates have complained to the NEC, none of the presidential contenders has officially expressed dissatisfaction with the election.

During the first round, the opposition, particularly UP, alleged that NEC would cheat for the governing party. They threatened. For example, Representative Yekeh Kolumba and Senator Prince Johnson won re-election, and Former Vice President Boakai did well in the election. Yet they advocated war if they lost. Civil societies and other concerned Liberians have spoken against such utterances.

Three things could happen regarding the runoff. The turnout and invalid votes would reduce, and the margin between the winner and loser would widen. There are three reasons: some Liberians whose candidates did not make the runoff may not vote. With voter education and the narrowness of the candidate’s list, invalid votes would be minimized. This would give voters a more explicit choice, increasing the margin.

Like the first round, the polls will open at 8 AM and close at 6 PM. The counting and the results should be sooner, unlike in round one.

WHO WILL WIN?

Some political viewers think Weah is better positioned to win, considering he has brought many development tangibles, carefully utilizing state resources without direct foreign investments and adequate assistance. Accordingly, he constructed roads, built hospitals, paid WASSCE fees, and provided free college tuition for public education. While they praised Boakai’s years of public service, they alleged that he presented no new ideas and would depend on his kinsmen and supporters to head the government if elected. They fear that Prince Johnson, a former warlord and US-sanctioned senator, would serve as an unconstitutional prime minister under Boakai. He could control Boakai. This move could create a crisis. Ishmail Kayetta and former Boakai’s aide, Henry Costa, expressed that Boakai is an underdog and is in a harder position to win. But other pundits credit Boakai for his age and wisdom in government administration. They see him as corruption-free and peaceful and would rescue Liberia. 

Whoever wins this election, the loser will cry flout, alleging cheating, and fraud. About a week ago, Monrovia Mayor Jefferson Koigee, CDC Secretary-General, accused Oscar Bloh, chairman of the Election Coordinating Committee, of being involved in campaign strategizing for UP. Koigee complained to the US Embassy in Liberia. However, the embassy rubbished the allegation as false and baseless. Likewise, Mo Ali, Boakai’s campaign spokesman, alleged that the CDC has paid US$ 150,000 to the ECOWAS Observer Mission to declare that the runoff election in Liberia is fair, credible, and transparent. An ECOWAS political official denied the accusation as unfortunate and a lie. OK FM in Liberia frowned on both allegations, saying the parties accused without facts.

Further, UP and CDC have accused each other of playing tribal politics in the runoff. UP sees the whelming election of Weah by Southeasterners as tribalism because the president is from the region. Likely, CDC terms Boakai’s and his running mate Jeremiah Koung’s votes from Lofa and Nimba mainly because they are from the areas, respectively. But Kayetta disagreed, arguing that though tribalism exists in Liberia, it plays little role in the election and that the people in the regions voted primarily for reasons other than tribal politics.

A few days before the runoff, the Weah administration received the excellent news that the government had passed the Millennium Challenge Scorecard. This US government instrument measures developing countries’ efforts to improve the conditions of their people. The card looks at 20 indicators, including political rights, civil liberties, control of corruption, and fiscal policies. Since the Ellen Johnson regime, Liberia has failed to pass over 10 indicators. For 2023, Liberia passed 12 indicators; for 2024, the government achieved its highest mark of 14 out of 20. Many development experts congratulate Liberia for the achievement. The government sees it as a vindication from criticism of doing little for the country and people.

The US government uses the scorecard to determine development funding for Third World countries. For funding qualification, a country must initially pass the indicators. However, critics say the announcement is politically geared to benefit the government during a crucial election. In 2011, before the presidential election that year, President Sirleaf, Leymah Gbowee, and Tawakkol Karmans received the Nobel Peace Prize. The opposition complained that the president influenced the decision for political gain. Sirleaf easily won re-election. She, Vice President Boakai, and their cabinets happily served six additional years of administration.

A peaceful, fair, and credible election in Liberia is a must. The country cannot return to years of civil unrest and instabilities. 

 I look forward to the election. It is an essence and manifestation of democracy.